18 months for the world to recover
18 months is the time needed for the world economy to recover. That was the prediction at the APEC meeting today in Lima Peru. There is still a very bumpy road ahead of us, still many bad scenarios we yet to see and many more unpredicted things ahead. What would it be like from now? Lets make some good prediction.
USA will have a new President in January 2009. January is always a good time to start something new not only it a new year but also the start of a new season. Schools will start in April, companies financial year will start in April as well and so are seasonal sports events like baseball, golf and formula one.
January will be a point when things starts to recover. We will still facing many challenges and not everything will be smooth. Energy crisis will still well inside everybody’s mind but oil price will be more stable price range. Many companies will report huge loss for the financial year end in early 2009 and the world will once again back to some uncertainty for a while. Things will start to pick up early summer with technology industries leading the way. The Dow Jones will recover but will not break the 10000 mark.
In Asia, China will shine more than others, once again the industries are back producing cheaper goods for the US and European markets. The share market will be one of the fastest to recover in the region. Due to low interest rate the carry trade from Japan start to taking in yen to be invested in China. However not much are to be seen in the South east Asia region as big China is doing so fine.
By the end of the 12th months, things looks very promising in the USA and next year christmas promise a lot for many people. Dow Jones will break the 10,000 points and new technology industries will still be the main flavor of the day.
Hopefully we will not forget of the recent turmoil and learn every lessons from them. There are many things need to be tackled fast like the energy crisis and the more serious global warming which will eventually the most fear disaster that could happen to this world. The world need to work together right from now. Maybe this is just a simple warning from our creator that a slight heat from the economic turmoil can make our world in a disaster, a real heat from nature will more than that. We need to do something…